Inflation or Deflation coming?

[david3595]

I’m sure I seen 3.9% June RPI rate

[RobertT]

Inflation rates for June, released 14th July.

RPI – 3.9%
CPI – 2.5%
CPI(H) – 2.4%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

[heapsy]

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflatio ... /l55o/mm23

[NorthernBoy]

For deferred members I think they use cpi for any increase, is this the same for pensions already in payment?

Or do they use the rpi rate.

[RobertT]

Section A/B pensions in payment are increased by CPI, but it's RPI for section C.

Although there are plans to replace RPI with CPI(H) by 2030:
https://www.prosserknowles.co.uk/news/h ... r-pension/

For full info on how RM pensions increase, see the members guide to benefits: https://www.royalmailpensionplan.co.uk/ ... c_v3.3.pdf

[celtic1967]

Fuel and energy prices are way up, hopefully reflected in the price indexes that determine pension increases. My 12 month dual fuel fixed deal is shortly coming to an end and having used all the comparison tools the best I'm looking at is a 30% hike !!!

[RobertT]

The latest figures for July(released 18th August) actually see a reduction in all three indices from the previous month:

RPI – 3.8%
CPI – 2%
CPI(H) – 2.1%

[NorthernBoy]

The latest figures for July(released 18th August) actually see a reduction in all three indices from the previous month:

RPI – 3.8%
CPI – 2%
CPI(H) – 2.1%

Yes, the cpi figure has surprised to the downside.

The sceptic in me thinks that Septembers figure will be lower as that is the one used for the annual deferred members pension increases. I hope I am wrong on this, as I would like to see a decent increase!

[renrag40]

The September inflation figure whether RPI or CPI is the figure used for all pensions accrued upto the end of March 2018 in Sections A, B and C the following April.

[Hawkey99]

Really surprised at the figures.

Everything I see seems to have gone up much more than that, food, shopping, holidays intact everything.

There is also a huge shortage of things, cars, components, and everyday stuff which I thought would have added to the problem..

Who knows the bank might be right and inflation has peaked however personally I think we have more to come yet.....

[Woody Guthrie]

There's nothing in the inflation drivers that would suggest a downward trajectory for any of the indexes.

Supply is restricted, transportation costs are higher than they have been for years and with the economy opening back up a lot of people will have money to burn.

What we might be seeing is a temporary blip with people channeling their spare money in only one direction... holidays.

The whole "basket of goods" parameter is flawed anyway. Prices vary a great deal even within the various sub groups because of the impact of Internet shopping.

[heapsy]

Covid hasn't helped with supplies. Brexit might have some effect, but that should pass. The notion that a shortage of HGV drivers is due to them going home because they were driven out by the leave vote is pretty lame. Some would have left anyway due to not wanting to stay long term. Some DID get caught out by being abroad when travel bans came in, unable to reenter. Some may not have wished to apply for the right to remain. I also read recently, a comment by a former HGV driver. He said that only about 15% of HGV drivers actually travel abroad, so most do domestic runs only. And finally, he also mentioned that around 15% retire every year. Coupled with the fact that wages have gradually evened out with the rest of society, some just don't see it as a viable career apparently. Also, as someone who invests on the stock markets, I think sentiment has a part to play. A lot of damage was done by people talking up the shortage of goods, prices WILL go up etc. This was before we left the EU. Guess what, They got what they wanted. The supermarkets have hammered customers because they know they will get away with it. It doesn't cost any more to import now than before. I can only see a gradual increase before the government has to act. Probably around mid 2022.

[RobertT]

August's figures are out and all 3 indices have seen a steep increase from July:

RPI - 4.8%
CPI - 3.2%
CPI(H) - 3.0%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

[NorthernBoy]

August's figures are out and all 3 indices have seen a steep increase from July:

RPI - 4.8%
CPI - 3.2%
CPI(H) - 3.0%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

Am hoping the figures stay high for another month so that they give a decent rise for next years pension.

[fly-catchers]

August's figures are out and all 3 indices have seen a steep increase from July:

RPI - 4.8%
CPI - 3.2%
CPI(H) - 3.0%

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/inflationandpriceindices

Am hoping the figures stay high for another month so that they give a decent rise for next years pension.

Bet the Government will hope the opposite!