Shares heading below 100p ?

dancingqueen · Post by **dancingqueen** » 21 May 2019, 15:00

I spoke to my broker earlier. He is very very bearish of Royal Mail shares. He expects them to fall below 100p.

mickeymacca · Post by **mickeymacca** » 21 May 2019, 20:47

dancingqueen wrote:I spoke to my broker earlier. He is very very bearish of Royal Mail shares. He expects them to fall below 100p.

he's a f***ing idiot then

dancingqueen · Post by **dancingqueen** » 21 May 2019, 20:57

When the shares were 600p he said they were way overvalued.

He was 100% correct.

He now says they are going sub 100p

watch this space.

Woody Guthrie · Post by **Woody Guthrie** » 22 May 2019, 06:17

dancingqueen wrote:When the shares were 600p he said they were way overvalued.

When the shares were 600p my dog knew they were overvalued.
We would be bought out and broken up long before the shares reached 100p.

Post by **wacko74** » 22 May 2019, 07:17

Yeah you need to find another broker.

matt76 · Post by **matt76** » 22 May 2019, 08:35

wacko74 wrote:Yeah you need to find another broker.

Agreed!

matt76 · Post by **matt76** » 22 May 2019, 08:37

dancingqueen wrote:When the shares were 600p he said they were way overvalued.

He was 100% correct.

He now says they are going sub 100p

watch this space.

At £1 the shares would be way undervalued, has he been on the sauce? I’d get a new broker pretty sharpish!

dancingqueen · Post by **dancingqueen** » 22 May 2019, 12:19

Matt

When the shares were 600p people said they were undervalued.

They then sank to 215p

The business model is a busted flush. No productivityu gains. Huge margin pressure.

mickeymacca · Post by **mickeymacca** » 22 May 2019, 15:41

What was your intention of starting this thread?

Given many colleagues still hold shares, and given the drop yesterday before results, such a post could well have the effect of panicking colleagues who have held shares for over 5 years to part with them prematurely.

I don't believe you have a broker.....

Post by **rambo1** » 23 May 2019, 17:23

mickeymacca wrote:What was your intention of starting this thread?

Given many colleagues still hold shares, and given the drop yesterday before results, such a post could well have the effect of panicking colleagues who have held shares for over 5 years to part with them prematurely.

I don't believe you have a broker.....

He is correct that the business model is busted. Think about it. What is going up? Packets. What take a load longer to sort, transport and deliver? Packets. Are margins huge? No. So a product that is on the up takes a shed load more wages to deliver but competition in that area is so fierce that the profit margins are tiny.
I've come to this conclusion as the busier we appear to be, the less profit we seem to make. And I can't see a way round it. Oh yeah, we have to deliver letters too. Even if the volume of letters drops it still takes longer to go to more houses (that are being built) with less mail per house. Don't forget van share time wasted. How many times do you and your partner get back to van exactly the same time? All those 2,3,4,5 mins one is waiting, add them up x130000 posties. That's some time wasted. In short, we don't work as a profit making business.

Acca Dacca · Post by **Acca Dacca** » 23 May 2019, 18:48

dancingqueen wrote:Matt

When the shares were 600p people said they were undervalued.

They then sank to 215p

The business model is a busted flush. No productivityu gains. Huge margin pressure.

No one said they were undervalued when they were 600p

They said they were undervalued at the 300 odd p they were when we were first privatised but never at 600p

Based on the property and land Royal Mail has alone a fair price is about 450p

mickeymacca · Post by **mickeymacca** » 23 May 2019, 19:42

rambo1 wrote:
mickeymacca wrote:What was your intention of starting this thread?

Given many colleagues still hold shares, and given the drop yesterday before results, such a post could well have the effect of panicking colleagues who have held shares for over 5 years to part with them prematurely.

I don't believe you have a broker.....
He is correct that the business model is busted. Think about it. What is going up? Packets. What take a load longer to sort, transport and deliver? Packets. Are margins huge? No. So a product that is on the up takes a shed load more wages to deliver but competition in that area is so fierce that the profit margins are tiny.
I've come to this conclusion as the busier we appear to be, the less profit we seem to make. And I can't see a way round it. Oh yeah, we have to deliver letters too. Even if the volume of letters drops it still takes longer to go to more houses (that are being built) with less mail per house. Don't forget van share time wasted. How many times do you and your partner get back to van exactly the same time? All those 2,3,4,5 mins one is waiting, add them up x130000 posties. That's some time wasted. In short, we don't work as a profit making business.

Hi Rambo, I respectfully disagree. Turnover has increased and attention on the areas that are affecting the bottom line are being addressed (productivity). I thought it was a fairly positive statement, maintaining div and setting out div going forward to prevent speculation prior to next years statement. Parcel sorting machines were mentioned and increased automation to combat some of the factors you mentioned. I know we have all been here before but you have got to give the CEO a chance he's only been in post for 5 minutes and previous record is good. Besides, you may well turn out to be correct, but to be honest its the tone and nature of the post of the other bloke that grated, and not your reasoned argument which I can appreciate comes from an honest place having followed your posts previously.

datasaint · Post by **datasaint** » 23 May 2019, 20:31

How many years did RM lose money during the nineties, god willing that doesn't happen now because I highly doubt we would get a bail-out like the bankers did.

dancingqueen · Post by **dancingqueen** » 23 May 2019, 21:17

mickeymacca wrote:What was your intention of starting this thread?

Given many colleagues still hold shares, and given the drop yesterday before results, such a post could well have the effect of panicking colleagues who have held shares for over 5 years to part with them prematurely.

I don't believe you have a broker.....

I started this thread to debate the shares falling below 100p.

Not panicking anyone.

I have not advised anyone to sell.

Merely pointing out what my broker has told me.

dancingqueen · Post by **dancingqueen** » 23 May 2019, 21:19

Acca Dacca wrote:
dancingqueen wrote:Matt

When the shares were 600p people said they were undervalued.

They then sank to 215p

The business model is a busted flush. No productivityu gains. Huge margin pressure.
No one said they were undervalued when they were 600p

They said they were undervalued at the 300 odd p they were when we were first privatised but never at 600p

Based on the property and land Royal Mail has alone a fair price is about 450p

When the shares were 600p some brokers had target prices of £10. FACT. How wrong were they ?