Royal Mail to get some love at last once pension issue is resolved

[TrueBlueTerrier]

http://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/com ... 75295.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

JP Morgan Cazenove thinks pension negotiations will resolve in the next few weeks, and the market is discounting a positive outcome

Heavyweight broker JP Morgan Cazenove remains moderately bullish on Royal Mail Group PLC (LON:RMG) despite cutting its price target for the parcels delivery outfit.

The rating remains “overweight” despite the price target shifting to 545p from 600p, reflecting a weak showing in the final quarter of 2016 – the group’s third quarter – in terms of mail volumes.

In Cazenove’s view, the stock stand out versus its peers ahead in a market that is discounting what Caz thinks will be a positive conclusion to the long-running pension negotiations.

The shares have been out of favour since a poor third quarter mail volume update, with investors worried about the post-Brexit environment and the prospect of strike action.

Resolution of the pension issue should see sentiment towards the former nationalised company change, Caz argues.

Shares in Royal Mail were 0.8% higher in the lunchtime session at 411.7p, having fallen as low as 406.04p at one point.

[k979aaa]

All I will say is it's a long time in hell for ROYALMAIL then!

[LouBarlow]

It blows my mind that we seem to get more updates from a stockbroker, on the state of the pensions negotiations, than we do from our own union. Unless he is full of s**t of course.

[wandle]

It blows my mind that we seem to get more updates from a stockbroker, on the state of the pensions negotiations, than we do from our own union. Unless he is full of s**t of course.

It's not FACTS they are spouting: just conjecture, i.e. JP Morgan Cazenove thinks pension negotiations will resolve in the next few weeks

[wacko74]

Remember a ''positive conclusion to the pension negotiations'' to JP Morgan Caz means the workforce getting shafted and forced to accept a rubbish deal.

[Blackburn4511]

Remember a ''positive conclusion to the pension negotiations'' to JP Morgan Caz means the workforce getting shafted and forced to accept a rubbish deal.

precisely. i have an acquaintance who has actually spoken to this broker. broker is 'bullish' because RM can get done w/pension and actually LOWER cash paymes, while also getting flexibility to get rid of more workforce and lower cost per employee over time, all so the precious dividend can keep going up.

also the broker things the pension will take any deal because the employees care more about dividend than pension. have they seen the individual calculations??

The incentives are not aligned here.

[jetblack]

Remember a ''positive conclusion to the pension negotiations'' to JP Morgan Caz means the workforce getting shafted and forced to accept a rubbish deal.

precisely. i have an acquaintance who has actually spoken to this broker. broker is 'bullish' because RM can get done w/pension and actually LOWER cash paymes, while also getting flexibility to get rid of more workforce and lower cost per employee over time, all so the precious dividend can keep going up.

also the broker things the pension will take any deal because the employees care more about dividend than pension. have they seen the individual calculations??

The incentives are not aligned here.

JP Morgan could be wide of the mark here.

FWIW, if I were JPM I'd be shorting RMG. Because if RMG reject the perfectly reasonable and well thought out Wage in Retirement proposal put forward by the CWU then the union will ballot the members for industrial action, we will vote in the affirmative, and there will be large consequences for both the dividend and the share price. And I suspect that the workforce are at the point at which they might well be prepared to go the extra yard on this one - and, for the first time in a long while, we have a strong and effective union leadership.
On the other hand RMG accept the proposal, and negotiate some savings to help fund it. The workforce is happy, but bullish traders get burnt. This is not the outcome upon which their price forecasts have been built.

What percentage stake, Blackburn, do Wall Street have in RMG as a whole ? Would you have any idea ?

[yellowbelly]

What percentage stake, Blackburn, do Wall Street have in RMG as a whole ? Would you have any idea ?

http://investors.morningstar.com/owners ... ountry=USA" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

and click the tab from 'Funds' to 'Institutions' view - was looking to see if JP Morgan had a vested interest in 'bigging up' RMG's prospects.

[jetblack]

Bloody hell - thats a good find yellowbelly. I've been looking for that kind of info for a long time, but with no success.

It'll take me a while to work out who's who and whats what - and which group is a subsiduary of which holding group etc.

My immediate take on it is that the largest shareholding at 3% seems quite small. But I suppose when you add them all up and take account of the fact that they all have the same goals (whoever owns them) then it doesn't matter that much either way.

[jetblack]

Blackrock at least in part are trading under one name albeit through arms in the UK as well as the US. They have 3 seperate listings in that list of leading shareholders. Wall Street. According to Wikipedia they have $5 trillion worth of assets under their control. That is roughly twice as much as the GDP of the whole of the UK.

I wonder where they stand on the crisis in the funding of the Defined Benefit pension scheme

I strongly suspect that not only do many of these groups share the same interests - but that they share the same ownership as well.

It doesn't take too much working out TBH when 1% of the world population own 50% of the worlds wealth/assets.

At least, that is what common sense would tell me - trying to prove it would be an altogether different matter given the legal and accounting might of some of the most powerful interests in the world - and all the legal and accounting/financial shenanigans that they are able to afford.

[Tman]

Financial info from the Morning Star?
Yeah...really trustworthy.

Wrong Morning Star, it seems.

[TrueBlueTerrier]

Financial info from the Morning Star?
Yeah...really trustworthy.

Wrong morning star

[Tman]

Quite correct. That'll teach me to not read it fully!