The Brexit Trigger and Share Valuation

LouBarlow · Post by **LouBarlow** » 20 Mar 2017, 20:22

As the 29th is pretty soon, and the share price is steadily, slowly climbing up again, is it likely to be the best time to sell in the immediate future? I presume that the shares will plummet on the 29th, as they did after the Brexit vote result, and any recovery afterwards, is likely to take some time, with the upcoming pension debates etc.

Any thoughts?

Post by **teesdale** » 20 Mar 2017, 23:09

I think your right about value falling and then a long wait for them to rise after. I think only a small drop after 29th March but a massive drop after first days altogether strike announced in June. Then another drop when rolling strikes announced July. Down to £3.30. Then a long climb back after pension/pay decided at end of year into early 2018 to £4.90.

Post by **aiden01** » 20 Mar 2017, 23:16

Your view is based on what information.

LouBarlow · Post by **LouBarlow** » 21 Mar 2017, 05:39

aiden01 wrote:Your view is based on what information.

Mine? Utter guesswork. I just don't see them getting up to the levels they were before, looking at future conflicts within the company.

Post by **Judgee** » 21 Mar 2017, 20:50

teesdale wrote:I think your right about value falling and then a long wait for them to rise after. I think only a small drop after 29th March but a massive drop after first days altogether strike announced in June. Then another drop when rolling strikes announced July. Down to £3.30. Then a long climb back after pension/pay decided at end of year into early 2018 to £4.90.

Post by **aiden01** » 21 Mar 2017, 21:14

LouBarlow wrote:
aiden01 wrote:Your view is based on what information.
Mine? Utter guesswork. I just don't see them getting up to the levels they were before, looking at future conflicts within the company.

apologies was replying to post after your,s

datasaint · Post by **datasaint** » 22 Mar 2017, 19:30

Brexit is likely to effect RM because of a potential recession, if people are buying less, then companies are sending less, as well as advertising less.

Depends entirely how things pan out.

LouBarlow · Post by **LouBarlow** » 23 Mar 2017, 05:41

I'm thinking more that the pensions uncertainty is the reason why I should just dump them now. People have been saying 'they will go back up again' since January and it hasn't happened. Things will only get worse if strike action is even considered. I appreciate a near 30% hit on tax/NI is big, but they've dropped 25% since October last year already.

JKSmudge · Post by **JKSmudge** » 23 Mar 2017, 14:39

I stubbed my toe today - damned Brexit!

datasaint · Post by **datasaint** » 26 Mar 2017, 14:26

LouBarlow wrote:I'm thinking more that the pensions uncertainty is the reason why I should just dump them now.

I don't think the pension issue is that big a deal. The CWU and RM both agree the current system can't continue, so they have to reach a compromise.

And historically the last time there was a national ballot for strike action RM backed down straight away.

LouBarlow · Post by **LouBarlow** » 26 Mar 2017, 15:45

There has to be a reason they have plummeted in value since October though. From what I understand from trading expert, the pension issue is the reason. If it is resolved hopefully they jump up again.

k979aaa · Post by **k979aaa** » 10 May 2017, 17:39

LouBarlow wrote:There has to be a reason they have plummeted in value since October though. From what I understand from trading expert, the pension issue is the reason. If it is resolved hopefully they jump up again.

And at what cost to those who are expecting a pension?

LouBarlow · Post by **LouBarlow** » 14 May 2017, 14:52

k979aaa wrote:
LouBarlow wrote:There has to be a reason they have plummeted in value since October though. From what I understand from trading expert, the pension issue is the reason. If it is resolved hopefully they jump up again.
And at what cost to those who are expecting a pension?

Huh? Even RM's worst projection leaves us with a pension. Let's be honest here, we are going to be compromising somehow and we won't be getting what we initially thought when we signed up. I'll be on the gates when asked, but I'm not naive enough to think that RM will capitulate completely.