Future Share Price ?

Fulpostie · Post by **Fulpostie** » 04 Sep 2016, 16:20

With many posties looking to cash in their first batch of free shares next month,i was wondering what they could be worth next April or possibly beyond.

DGH · Post by **DGH** » 04 Sep 2016, 17:14

Thruppence?

Nobody knows is the answer. If you don't sell and they happen to be the same or higher in value in two years time then you could look on that as £1000+ lost (being taxed for selling before the 3 years is up). On the other hand is £3000-ish worth having now as opposed to maybe £4000 in two years (but could be less than the £3000, which I think is unlikely - but nobody actually knows)?

What we will see in a month's time is how many RM employees have faith in the short-mid term health of the company . . . though that will be mitigated a bit by the number who just want a decent amount of free money now rather than 25% or so more in two years.

datasaint · Post by **datasaint** » 04 Sep 2016, 17:43

If you know how the share price is going to perform your talents are wasted as a postman.

I think based on its history so far shares in RM are pretty secure, the price hasn't fluctuated much at all, it's paying a decent dividend, and we all know there is scope for more efficiency savings in the future eg. the USO dropping to 5 days a week would be a game changer as would a potential takeover by TNT/UPS/Fedex.

If you plan on staying in the job for another 2 years it definitely makes more sense to hold onto them.

Post by **rambo1** » 04 Sep 2016, 18:22

Look at it this way. If you sell next month, you could be giving away the equivalent of working for free for three weeks! It's money you never had in the first place, so unless the debt collectors are beating a path to you door, you really would be very silly to sell before 5 yrs (and beyond) as the divi looks quite secure for now. Full timers now have 900 ish free (yes not money you risked yourself) , shares. The current and forecast divi amounts to around £200 a yr. +. That's like the interest you would get for having £14k sat in santander 123 account paying 1.5% interest (from November). If you still want to cash in and it's up to you, but I know what I'm doing. Yes, the company could go belly up but we all know the volume of mail and parcels we are getting, and the efficiency drives, I reckon we are doing just fine.

Jefferson Starfish · Post by **Jefferson Starfish** » 04 Sep 2016, 19:04

rambo1 wrote:Look at it this way. If you sell next month, you could be giving away the equivalent of working for free for three weeks! It's money you never had in the first place, so unless the debt collectors are beating a path to you door, you really would be very silly to sell before 5 yrs (and beyond) as the divi looks quite secure for now. Full timers now have 900 ish free (yes not money you risked yourself) , shares. The current and forecast divi amounts to around £200 a yr. +. That's like the interest you would get for having £14k sat in santander 123 account paying 1.5% interest (from November). If you still want to cash in and it's up to you, but I know what I'm doing. Yes, the company could go belly up but we all know the volume of mail and parcels we are getting, and the efficiency drives, I reckon we are doing just fine.

Good post Rambo, at least someone on here has got a brain.

elteleltel · Post by **elteleltel** » 04 Sep 2016, 20:33

I have bought and sold a few shares over the yrs and would definitely keep these for 2 more yrs . I bought a 1000 pounds worth at the initial issue and sold them at 5-98 each so a decent profit . The Government sold us too cheap hence the "upside" to the initial price

Shaders · Post by **Shaders** » 04 Sep 2016, 20:50

I'm selling mine and putting the money towards a holiday of a lifetime whilst the kids are still at home.
Could be dead in two years, live for today I say and worry about tomorrow when it gets here.

Postie45 · Post by **Postie45** » 04 Sep 2016, 21:33

if you think you may leave in the next 2 years, or have definite plans for the money then id think about taking them out. If you dont need the money right now you may as well leave it in there as you will be saving around £1000 out of the £3200 total. The price may go down but not likely over £1000 plus you will get dividends in the meantime.

Decky Boy · Post by **Decky Boy** » 07 Sep 2016, 21:47

Fulpostie wrote:With many posties looking to cash in their first batch of free shares next month,i was wondering what they could be worth next April or possibly beyond.

Historically the share price has peaked each May. Selling early ( In October 2016) you'll loose 32% of the value of your shares plus a small commission. I'm holding onto mine for the foreseeable future

Spigot bearing · Post by **Spigot bearing** » 07 Sep 2016, 23:05

Postie45 wrote:if you think you may leave in the next 2 years, or have definite plans for the money then id think about taking them out. If you dont need the money right now you may as well leave it in there as you will be saving around £1000 out of the £3200 total. The price may go down but not likely over £1000 plus you will get dividends in the meantime.

£1000 plus dividends? Really are you kidding me?
Once Royal Mail has sold off all its assets ie land ie delivery offices it's worth will be near zero.

wandle · Post by **wandle** » 08 Sep 2016, 00:58

Spigot bearing wrote:
Postie45 wrote:if you think you may leave in the next 2 years, or have definite plans for the money then id think about taking them out. If you dont need the money right now you may as well leave it in there as you will be saving around £1000 out of the £3200 total. The price may go down but not likely over £1000 plus you will get dividends in the meantime.
£1000 plus dividends? Really are you kidding me?
Once Royal Mail has sold off all its assets ie land ie delivery offices it's worth will be near zero.

I think he was referring to the fact that even if you could sell at yesterday's closing price, 521p, you would lose a combined £959 in Income Tax and National Insurance, plus you won't be entitled to dividend over the next 2 years on those 613 shares, an estimated £271, tossing away around £1200 in actual fact. So, in effect, you'd be receiving - after deductions and missed dividend payments - the equivalent of 325p per share. Less than the heavily-criticised price of 330p that the government 'flogged them' for !!!

GLS will outgrow the core UK mail business over the longer term. The biggest danger to your shares is if / when a foreign investor realises this and makes a takeover offer for the shares, in order to get their hands on the fast-growing GLS European arm of Royal Mail Group plc. If every employee shareholder were to dump their 613 shares (or a pro-rata entitlement) next month, that potentially gives a bidder a chance to acquire 8.4% of the company's shares !!

Postie45 · Post by **Postie45** » 08 Sep 2016, 06:06

Spigot bearing wrote:
£1000 plus dividends? Really are you kidding me?
Once Royal Mail has sold off all its assets ie land ie delivery offices it's worth will be near zero.

thats great, maybe you shouldnt be wasting your time with Royal Mail and should be short selling shares instead ?

Post by **rambo1** » 08 Sep 2016, 20:27

Or he could get a job as a journalist!

RedBagMan · Post by **RedBagMan** » 09 Sep 2016, 18:04

Just for info for any old gits .. I read the "small print" and if you're over 60 and you resign/leave it's counted as retiring - and you can then sell the shares free of tax and NI.