Shares to drop in October

postmanzach · Post by **postmanzach** » 15 Sep 2018, 22:07

Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.

JKSmudge · Post by **JKSmudge** » 16 Sep 2018, 10:29

deetee wrote:Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.

Will depend on how many decide to cash in immediately - and anyone who does sell the 2015 shares will lose 32% of the value ( 20% tax & 12% NI ). Worth waiting 2 more years to get tax & NI free unless the cash is desperately needed now.

Any drop in share price will be offset to some extent by the new SIP share offer, with the first purchase date around the 15th October I believe.

The shares have gone up over the past few weeks, so investors obviously think there is some value and any dip in the price will be short-lived IMHO.

Decky Boy · Post by **Decky Boy** » 17 Sep 2018, 17:23

deetee wrote:Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.

Really...shares to drop in October...have you a crystal ball ???

If I were in my twentys I'd be holding onto my shares for dear life. The dividends are fantastic

and unless you are in the do~do why would anyone sell ???

With parcel volumes growing as they are revenues will only increase. Offices will (sooner or later) have to see sense and put more hours back in to cope with e-commerce and online buying ? ? ?

Spedley · Post by **Spedley** » 17 Sep 2018, 18:11

I doubt it, the volumes are just too low. There may be a dip during the day but it should pick up again straight after.

Decky Boy · Post by **Decky Boy** » 17 Sep 2018, 18:22

Parcel volumes ain't low in my office.

Post by **rambo1** » 18 Sep 2018, 08:52

Spedley wrote:I doubt it, the volumes are just too low. There may be a dip during the day but it should pick up again straight after.

Volumes too low? If ,and I realise this isn't going to happen but, if everyone who wad given the first tranche of free shares put a pre order to sell asap, then around 50mln shares would be sold. Normal kind of volume is around 2mln shares traded a day ,bought and sold. So potentially more than enough volume to swing the sp, however since it's just posties wanting cash for Christmas, the fundamentals will not have changed and it'll bounce back. Buying opportunity I'd say.

wandle · Post by **wandle** » 21 Sep 2018, 07:44

I agree with Rambo1 - any significant drop in the share price due solely to holders of the 613 free shares issued in 2013 all selling at the same time would represent a buying opportunity.
However, there are many in my office who sold theirs in 2016, despite my warning them of the chunk of change they'd lose to Tax and NI by selling early. If this was typical across the country, there won't be that many of the original holders selling in October... They opted for the ready-cash and believed certain doom-merchants (who are not knowledgeable about stock markets) who predicted the shares would be 'worthless, like them Colleague Shares) in 2018!
For example, one guy sold at a price of around 489p and received about £2200 (or so he told me, at the time)....
Given that RM have paid 47p/share in dividends since then (7.4p + 15.6p + 7.7p + 16.3p), on shares he no longer holds, selling early means he missed out on about £1085

wandle · Post by **wandle** » 21 Sep 2018, 08:51

deetee, I would say you should really strongly consider keeping the additional batch of 103 shares. Yes, you will be able to sell after 5 October, but you'd pay Tax and NI on them. At the time of writing, the share price is 476.7p, so selling now would mean you would receive about £334, less Equiniti's fee for selling them.
Put it this way...
If somebody offered to give you £334, with the stipulation that, if you've still got the money in two years' time, they'll top it up with another £157, AND pay you about £25 each year for holding on to the money, would you really say 'nah, ta mate, but I'll take the £334 now and spend it' ??

Someone once said 'rich people stay rich by spending like they're poor; poor people stay poor by spending as if they're rich'!

NWpostie · Post by **NWpostie** » 21 Sep 2018, 14:56

If there's a glut of something, the market price will go down. It goes up if there is a demand and not enough supply.

Personally I'm keeping hold of mine purely for the divi which long term can be worth more than the share holding value. I have extra shares from IPO to hedge my bets.

AdTheBad · Post by **AdTheBad** » 01 Oct 2018, 18:27

deetee wrote:Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.

Good call.

Market Summary > Royal Mail PLC
LON: RMG
391.40 GBX −85.70 (17.96%)
1 Oct, 16:41 BST

Post by **milly** » 01 Oct 2018, 20:54

AdTheBad wrote:
deetee wrote:Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.
Good call.

Market Summary > Royal Mail PLC
LON: RMG
391.40 GBX −85.70 (17.96%)
1 Oct, 16:41 BST

Lucky call more like.
His reasoning was to do with Postal Workers dumping shares en masse and not a profit warning which was the real reason for the drop.

Post by **POSTMAN** » 02 Oct 2018, 14:01

deetee wrote:Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.

Boom!

postmanzach · Post by **postmanzach** » 02 Oct 2018, 18:26

Well there we go!

postmanzach · Post by **postmanzach** » 02 Oct 2018, 18:34

milly wrote:
AdTheBad wrote:
deetee wrote:Predicting a big drop in share value as we have the opportunity to sell more of the free shares,
what do you think? Maybe elder employees with some savings will keep hold of them for the tax savings but I reckon most young people could do with the cash.
Good call.

Market Summary > Royal Mail PLC
LON: RMG
391.40 GBX −85.70 (17.96%)
1 Oct, 16:41 BST
Lucky call more like.
His reasoning was to do with Postal Workers dumping shares en masse and not a profit warning which was the real reason for the drop.

Maybe they deliberately did this to stop an even bigger drop caused by so many selling? I don’t know probably not. Either way if I had the money I’d be buying them now, they might still go down as people sell but after Christmas I reckon be back above 500

postmanzach · Post by **postmanzach** » 02 Oct 2018, 18:39

wandle wrote:deetee, I would say you should really strongly consider keeping the additional batch of 103 shares. Yes, you will be able to sell after 5 October, but you'd pay Tax and NI on them. At the time of writing, the share price is 476.7p, so selling now would mean you would receive about £334, less Equiniti's fee for selling them.
Put it this way...
If somebody offered to give you £334, with the stipulation that, if you've still got the money in two years' time, they'll top it up with another £157, AND pay you about £25 each year for holding on to the money, would you really say 'nah, ta mate, but I'll take the £334 now and spend it' ??

Someone once said 'rich people stay rich by spending like they're poor; poor people stay poor by spending as if they're rich'!

It sounds completely stupid but yes I’m considering it! In two years my wife will be back at work, she’s been off a while and no maternity pay now, so our household income will more double so a few hundred quid won’t be a big deal, right now it is. Got overpaid tax credits last year now we’re getting 0 so just scraping by.