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LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

The latest news and discussion on Royal Mail Shares.Please note the advise given in this forum is unofficial, please use the links we have for a more detailed response or see an independent financial adviser.
All news and discussion on Daniel Kretinsky's full takeover of Royal Mail.
posted
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Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by posted »

Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:30
RobertT wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:18
Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:16
So the extra 7 per cent so far cost them £m?
The 7.59% are other shareholders accepting the offer.
Yes Robert but what cost is that please?
no suggestion of a cost attached.
It's a record of how many shares have returned an Accept offer
RobertT
EX ROYAL MAIL
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Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by RobertT »

Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:30
RobertT wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:18
Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:16
So the extra 7 per cent so far cost them £m?
The 7.59% are other shareholders accepting the offer.
Yes Robert but what cost is that please?

He needs another 40 per cent or more by the end of April.
As an absolute minimum, he needs a total of 50% including his own 27%, but that would mean getting together with the IDS board and agreeing a lower acceptance threshold.
To guarantee the takeover, he needs at least 75%.

There's 958, 293,475 shares in issue and he's offering £3.68 per share(£3.60+8p), which values the company at £3.52 Billion.
Which means each 1% he buys from shareholders will cost £35.26 million. But that will only happen if he gets enough acceptances.

My understanding is a large number of IDS shares are owned by pension funds, etc. So if they start selling, which some people say they'll do at the last minute, the acceptance percentage has the potential to increase quickly.
Links to all RM pension related websites are here
Rommagic
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Joined: 10 Sep 2007, 16:52

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by Rommagic »

Thanks Robert.
Ady128
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Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by Ady128 »

Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:30
RobertT wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:18
Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:16
So the extra 7 per cent so far cost them £m?
The 7.59% are other shareholders accepting the offer.
Yes Robert but what cost is that please?
No cost yet as they’ve not been bought.
adb2aber
MAIL CENTRES/PROCESSING
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Gender: Male

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by adb2aber »

RobertT wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 10:08
Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 08:07
EP group up too 35.1 per cent.
Rommagic wrote:
14 Apr 2025, 09:34
Ep group had 27.5 per cent.
As of 11 April:

EP = 27.56%
Other acceptances = 7.59%
Total 35.15%

The previous announcement was:

EP = 27.56%
Others = 6.06%
Total = 33.62%
Where do we find these numbers to keep an eye on them, RobertT? Thanks in advance :)
the beautiful bd south
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Location: west riding of yorkshire

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by the beautiful bd south »

TOO OLD TO DIE YOUNG
tractorboy2
EX ROYAL MAIL
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Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by tractorboy2 »

Who is buying all the shares that are being sold ?
RobertT
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Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by RobertT »

tractorboy2 wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 08:38
Who is buying all the shares that are being sold ?
Morgan Stanley seem to be buying a lot.
Links to all RM pension related websites are here
posted
Posts: 245
Joined: 31 Jan 2018, 20:21
Gender: Male

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by posted »

RobertT wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 09:24
tractorboy2 wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 08:38
Who is buying all the shares that are being sold ?
Morgan Stanley seem to be buying a lot.
On behalf of EP Group.
365.xx p
not having to pay out 8p dividend to (external) shareholders if sale goes through.
So 2.5p/share not to be sniffed

Meanwhile increasing his shareholding. Even if sale doesn't go through, enough shares to install his own board and leadership and do what he wants with company direction (assuming he get's near 50%) - whilst not being bound by the 'legal undertakings'.
Jefferson Starfish
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Location: Greendale DO

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by Jefferson Starfish »

posted wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 15:11
RobertT wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 09:24
tractorboy2 wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 08:38
Who is buying all the shares that are being sold ?
Morgan Stanley seem to be buying a lot.
On behalf of EP Group.
365.xx p
not having to pay out 8p dividend to (external) shareholders if sale goes through.
So 2.5p/share not to be sniffed

Meanwhile increasing his shareholding. Even if sale doesn't go through, enough shares to install his own board and leadership and do what he wants with company direction (assuming he get's near 50%) - whilst not being bound by the 'legal undertakings'.
Why wouldn't EP/DK just buy in their own name, as they've done before?
tractorboy2
EX ROYAL MAIL
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Gender: Male

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by tractorboy2 »

Is there a condition that the 8p special dividend may not be paid ?
Jefferson Starfish
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Location: Greendale DO

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by Jefferson Starfish »

tractorboy2 wrote:
16 Apr 2025, 10:22
Is there a condition that the 8p special dividend may not be paid ?
If the takeover doesn't happen.
RobertT
EX ROYAL MAIL
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Joined: 09 Sep 2007, 14:26
Gender: Male

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by RobertT »

posted wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 15:11
RobertT wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 09:24
tractorboy2 wrote:
15 Apr 2025, 08:38
Who is buying all the shares that are being sold ?
Morgan Stanley seem to be buying a lot.
On behalf of EP Group.
365.xx p
not having to pay out 8p dividend to (external) shareholders if sale goes through.
So 2.5p/share not to be sniffed

Meanwhile increasing his shareholding. Even if sale doesn't go through, enough shares to install his own board and leadership and do what he wants with company direction (assuming he get's near 50%) - whilst not being bound by the 'legal undertakings'.
My understanding is if EP/DK is buying shares they have to declare it, and that would also be the case if another body is buying on their behalf.
As far as I know, there hasn't been any declaration.

There's not much chance of a company as big and well known as Morgan Stanley, buying up millions of IDS shares on the sly!
Links to all RM pension related websites are here
wandle
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Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by wandle »

IF the takeover were to fail, would the share price collapse, to pre-bid levels?
My guess would be there would be a fall, then a bounce when the realisation hits that pension funds etc thought the shares are worth more than 368p, once the USO changes kick-in, and didn’t accept
Oldpostie5
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Gender: Male

Re: LTB 071/25 – OFFER BY EP GROUP – UPDATE

Post by Oldpostie5 »

Does the share offer include shares bought through pay or just free shares that we have been given over the years?